sponsor

Homepage > Commitment 2008
Related To Story
Scott Olson/Getty Images
PRESIDENT-ELECT BARACK OBAMA

Republicans Look To Close Gap In House

Democrats Have 235-199 Edge Entering Election

POSTED: 3:18 pm CDT October 27, 2008
UPDATED: 8:57 am CDT October 30, 2008

Every even-numbered year, all 435 seats in House of Representatives are up for grabs. The vast majority of seats don't change hands -- 98 percent of incumbents were re-elected in 2000 and 96 percent in 2004.

Interactive: Balance Of Power

That changed in 2006, when Democrats captured 31 seats, turning a 232-202 disadvantage to a 233-202 lead after the election, which has stretched to 235-199 thanks to special elections since the last election.

Democrats defeated 22 Republican incumbents and won eight open Republican-held seats. Republicans won no seats previously held by Democrats.

This year, the popularity of Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama could hurt the Republicans, as Democrats seek a veto-proof majority of 270 votes. Of the 32 voluntary retirements from the House, 26 are Republicans, which may open up more seats moving to the Democrats. Five other races have the incumbents not on the ballot: one seat is vacant after the death of Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones, D-Ohio, and four incumbents lost in primaries.

2008 House Races
Democratic Retirements
Representative State
Bud Cramer Alabama
Mark Udall Colorado
Tom Allen Maine
Tom Udall New Mexico
Michael McNulty New York
Darlene Hooley Oregon
Republican Retirements
Terry Everett Alabama
Rick Renzi Arizona
John Doolittle California
Duncan Hunter California
Tom Tancredo Colorado
Dave Weldon Florida
Jerry Weller Illinois
Ray LaHood Illinois
Ron Lewis Kentucky
Jim McCrery Louisiana
Jim Ramstad Minnesota
Chip Pickering Mississippi
Kelly Hulshof Missouri
Jim Saxton New Jersey
Mike Ferguson New Jersey
Heather Wilson New Mexico
Steve Pearce New Mexico
Vito Fossella New York
Jim Walsh New York
Tom Reynolds New York
Dave Hobson Ohio
Deb Pryce Ohio
Ralph Regula Ohio
John Peterson Pennsylvania
Tom Davis Virginia
Barbara Cubin Wyoming
Source: The Cook Political Report

According to CQpolitics.com, 328 of the 435 races are likely "safe" -- 201 Democrats keeping their seats and holding onto Tubbs Jones' seat and 126 Republicans keeping their seats.

The potential pitfall for Republicans are the seats where there is no clear favorite, or lean one way or another.

Of the 23 tight races with no clear favorite, 17 are seats currently held by Republicans, versus six held by Democrats.

Of the races that lean to one party or another, 23 of the 24 races with a Republican favored are GOP-held seats, where 13 of 19 races favoring a Democrat are seats the party currently holds.

One of those races is for Alaska's at-large seat, where 18-term Rep. Don Young, a Republican, is being closely challenged by Ethan Berkowitz, the former minority leader in the Alaska State House of Representatives.

Young barely survived a challenge from the state's Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell -- who had the backing of Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican Party's nominee for vice president -- winning by 309 votes. An Ivan Moore Research poll has Berkowitz leading 8 points.

The lone Democratic seat that leans Republican is that of Florida Rep. Tim Mahoney in Florida's 16th District.

Mahoney won the seat in 2006 by a 50-48 margin and was going to face a tough re-election fight from Tom Rooney, CQ Politics reported. Mahoney has also been fighting a scandal involving an alleged extra-marital affair that came to light in October.

One of the seats that is still considered a Republican lean that has gotten significant national attention recently is in Minnesota, where first-term Rep. Michele Bachmann faces Democratic challenger Elwyn Tinklenberg.

Bachmann, on an MSNBC political show on Oct. 17, suggested that Obama might have anti-American views and supported an "expose" that looked at which members of Congress were pro-American or not.

"What I would say is that the news media should do a penetrating expose and take a look. I wish they would. I wish the American media would take a great look at the views of the people in Congress and find out if they are pro-America or anti-America," Bachmann said.

Since Bachmann's comments, Tinklenberg has raised more than $1.3 million from across the country, and the National Republican Congressional Committee has stopped advertising for Bachmann, the Minneapolis Star Tribune reported.

Two separate polls have Tinklenberg pulling into a small lead and within the margin for error.

CQ Politics has determined that of the 41 races where one party is favored over another, none of the 25-Republican favored seats is currently held by the Democrats. Of the 16 seats Democrats are favored to win, two are GOP seats.

Comments

The following are comments from our users. This is not content created by WDSU.com. By posting your comments you agree to accept the Slantly Terms of Use.

Sponsored Links

Political News Feed

You don't have to surf around the Web to find the top political headlines. We're doing the work for you! More


Online Degree Center

Find the Degree You Need to Succeed in your Career More


Job Searching Tips

Like the old saying, "Today is the first day of the rest of your life," it's never a bad time to start moving your career in a better direction. Here are 10 resolutions to help. More


Health Topics & Information

An alarming number of people live with pain. Whether yours is chronic or acute, we can help you make it stop. Get pain management tips here! More

Consumer Info


Sponsored Content Provided by ARA
Consumer Info


Sponsored Content Provided by ARA
Consumer Info


Sponsored Content Provided by ARA
Credit Report
See Your Complete Credit Picture. Get your Experian, Equifax & Transunion Credit Score & Report Instantly. View Online for free. More

Credit Report
See All 3 National Credit Scores & Reports Instantly and Online for free! More

Get Your Degree

Education is essential when you are entering the job market and is going to have a tremendous affect on the salary that you will earn while on the job. More